Could OpenAIs Hype Machine Drive Down the Economy?
A closer look at the claims made in Sam Altman's essay "The Intelligence Age" and the marketing material for o1.

OpenAI's official twitter account (not their primary one) was hacked on September 24 to promote a new, fake crypto token. The incident made me think about the parallels between AI hype and crypto hype.
The AI hype which has been going on for roughly two years now, started at the time of DALL-E 2 ‘s or ChatGPT’s release in 2022. The crypto hype, arguably reached its peak in the early Spring of 2021 when digital artist, Beeple, sold his art collection as an NFT at a Christie’s auction for $69 million.
At its peak, crypto appealed to the greediest side of people and strange decisions were made. I was personally humbled, losing a huge chunk of my savings when the crypto market overheated and collapsed. Luckily for me, most of my funds were later recovered after grown-ups overtook the operations of the bankrupt crypto lender, Celsius. Many other people were not as lucky though and lost their entire life savings due to misplaced trust in the lies of self-proclaimed experts and industry leaders with a weak sense of ethics and morals.
The AI industry is, like crypto during the peak of its hype cycle, characterized by many strange and hyperbolic claims. However, the differences in the business reality behind crypto’s and AI’s respective hype machines are more striking than the similarities.
While the value of crypto was often measured in millions of dollars, the value of AI is often measured in billions. Both industries may have bad apples at the top of the financial food chain but in the AI industry, they are more politically powerful. Additionally, AI is mainstream, affecting everyone whether they like it or not, whereas crypto remained a niche industry that never gained widespread adoption.
The crypto market collapsed in 2022 as the lies and unethical behavior of influential industry leaders came to light. There is a non-insignificant chance that we will see a similar collapse of AI, once reality meets expectations. A downturn could be triggered if AI fails to generate enough returns and the technological development stalls. Then BigTech companies will be forced to cut down on spending and backpedal.
During crypto’s collapse, the consequences for individuals with heavy exposure were disastrous. A downturn in AI would affect and be felt across the entire economy. We don't know when, how, or if, it will happen, or how bad the outcome would be if AI cannot measure up to the hype. However, I will say one thing, OpenAI’s marketing campaigns about AIs' future capabilities are not contributing to a realistic and measured understanding of what the technology can do. They are certainly not alone in overselling the technology’s capabilities but most of the exaggerated claims made about AI in general can somehow be traced back to them.
The hype machine works on many levels. At the very top, we have wild statements by OpenAI’s CEO that are rarely questioned or critically examined by the media in sufficient depth. Then we have OpenAI’s product announcements that contain subtle exaggerations and half-truths. The problem is that these claims spread rampantly like rings in the water through social media where they are endorsed and further exaggerated by an army of second-hand profiteers who are battling each other to catch people’s attention.
Let’s take a closer look at some of the claims made in Sam Altman's essay “The Intelligence Age” published on September 23, and the announcement material for OpenAI's newest series of models, o1.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Futuristic Lawyer to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.